Download the full report

Executive summary

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, primary schools in England suffered multiple closures during 2020 and 2021, and National Testing was cancelled for two years. The combination of school closures and cancelled examinations compromised the ability to compare current attainment with prior years, and therefore to help inform policy and practice. This report provides evidence of the impact of the closures due to COVID-19 on children’s attainment and wellbeing over this period, from a new data source. It is one of the first longitudinal studies to examine the impact on primary school children’s academic progress alone, as well as in combination with academic wellbeing data.

Data

Attainment data from commercial curriculum-based termly tests1 used in primary schools was used to investigate trends in grammar, punctuation and spelling (GPS), reading and maths attainment between 2019–2022. The attainment analysis focused on the continuing impact of school disruption, changes to attainment, and the different impact across regions and levels of disadvantage in England. Analysis used aggregate results from more than 3 million primary school tests taken at more than 2,800 schools, entered into a proprietary online platform. GPS tests remained unchanged over this period, however reading and maths tests were both updated and re-standardised during 2020 and 2021 to reflect current teaching practices. Although the tests are similar, and allow for comparison of overall trends, the changes meant that, in some cases, a direct comparison of results was not appropriate.

The academic wellbeing of Key Stage 2 children throughout the period was investigated using results from an online survey, Wellbeing and Attitudes to Learning: Survey and Strategies, done in schools in England. Responses were analysed across three time periods: 2018 (pre-pandemic, trial period), 2020–21 (mid-pandemic) and 2021–22 (post-pandemic). Sample sizes across the period ranged between 4000 and 10,000 pupils. The survey consisted of 41 Likert scale questions that assessed four dimensions: positivity, motivation, self-efficacy, and resilience and persistence.

The final analysis was of the impact that children’s academic wellbeing may have had on their attainment. Focusing on the 2020–21 and 2021–22 school years, only children who had sat two sequential attainment tests and two sequential wellbeing surveys were included, resulting in a smaller sample of 522 unique pupils. 1 Standardised tests PiRA, New PiRA, PUMA, New PUMA and GAPS, published by RS Assessment from Hodder Education. 

Key findings and implications

Putting together all areas of the research, the key takeaways from this project are summarised below:

1. In GPS, as of autumn 2022, children in all years of primary school remained approximately 2 months behind the pre-pandemic attainment level. Further support in GPS is needed to help children improve these core skills.
2. In reading, children in Key Stage 1 were approximately 1 month behind in spring 2022 compared to spring 2019. In contrast, children in Key Stage 2 are likely to be attaining similar levels to their pre-pandemic peers.
3. In maths, children in Key Stage 1 were approximately 1 month behind in spring 2022 compared to spring 2019. In contrast, children in Key Stage 2 were attaining at approximately the same level in comparison with spring 2019.
4. In reading and maths, children who were in Key Stage 1 during the school closures in 2020 and 2021 had the largest drops in attainment compared to their pre-pandemic cohorts. There was also very little improvement in attainment for children in Key Stage 1 between autumn 2020 and autumn 2022. Given this, these children may still be behind the pre-pandemic cohort. Monitoring their attainment over time will be necessary to see if there is improvement in the future. These children were in Lower Key Stage 2 (Years 3 and 4) in autumn 2022, and may need additional support as they approach their end-of-primary-school National Tests in 2026 and 2025 respectively.
5. Children who were in Key Stage 2 in autumn 2022 appeared to have made up the losses in reading attainment seen during the 2020 and 2021 school closures. It is likely that on average, by autumn 2022, these primary children had caught up with their pre-pandemic counterparts in reading.
6. Children who were in Key Stage 2 in autumn 2022 appeared to have made up the losses in maths attainment seen during the 2020 and 2021 school closures. It is possible that on average, by autumn 2022, these primary children had caught up with their pre-pandemic counterparts in maths.
7. Over the course of school closures, the average attainment in all three subjects dropped in schools with high levels of in-school disadvantage. These drops were larger than for schools with lower disadvantage levels. The average standardised scores for children attending schools with high in-school disadvantage were also lower than their peers, in all subjects and years. This analysis indicates more investment may be required in schools with high disadvantage.
8. The disadvantage gap between children eligible for pupil premium funding and their peers remained large for all subjects and year groups. It also increased each autumn between 2020 and 2022 for Year 6 reading and maths. Additional support remains critical for children from disadvantaged backgrounds, in particular for those in Year 6, to assist them with the transition between primary and secondary school.
9. Children who were starting Year 3 in autumn 2020 and autumn 2021 had larger decreases in academic wellbeing than any other year group in Key Stage 2. These children were in Year 1 and 2 at the beginning of the pandemic and had the most disruption to their schooling (the largest impact on their attainment). Further support may be required in terms of academic wellbeing for these children as they progress through primary school. 
10. The majority of children in Key Stage 2 reported some vulnerability in self-efficacy (i.e.: how capable they felt in school) in the 2021–22 school year. This can be seen in Figure 1. Two simple strategies that can be used to address this in a school context include setting achievable goals and sharing positive academic experiences. 
11. There is some evidence that children’s positivity and self-efficacy may impact their attainment at Key Stage 2. While there was no significant relationship over time for reading, there was an effect of academic wellbeing on both GPS and maths across 2020–21. Children’s academic positivity was able to account for significant growth in GPS attainment, and children’s academic self-efficacy was able to account for significant growth in maths attainment. Implementation of strategies to improve and maintain positivity and self-efficacy in school may assist with improving children’s attainment in maths and GPS. Strategies that can be used to address positivity in a school context included tackling bullying and fostering a positive and safe class climate. 

Recommendations for policy and practice

Putting together the four key areas of research, some recommendations for policy and practice are summarised below: 

• School closures due to COVID-19 had an effect on primary school children’s attainment and academic wellbeing. The impact, and ability to reach pre-pandemic levels, has varied by school group, pupil group and subject. Although the average attainment in reading in upper Key Stage 2 appears to be back to pre-pandemic levels, younger pupils (Key Stage 1 and lower Key Stage 2) may still be behind in both reading and maths. All children require further assistance with grammar, punctuation and spelling.
• Children from disadvantaged backgrounds remain likely to need more support than others at a national level. Continuing to implement policies to improve support for children eligible for free school meals remains a key recommendation.
• A large proportion of children report some vulnerability in self-efficacy, and this proportion has increased over the course of the pandemic. Children would benefit from strategies to help improve their belief in themselves to succeed.
• Year 3s in 2021–22 reported the largest drop in academic wellbeing. Implementing strategies to improve academic wellbeing in Key Stage 2, and monitoring this trend, is recommended.
• There is some evidence that children’s positivity at school appeared to have impacted their grammar, punctuation and spelling attainment between autumn 2020 and autumn 2021, and their self-efficacy impacted their maths attainment between autumn 2020 and autumn 2021. Further research is required to monitor this trend on a larger scale, and may also help to understand the impact of academic wellbeing strategies in improving children’s academic wellbeing.

Download the full report