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The validity of NTS Assessments: Mathematics (2nd ed.) was tested during the 2024–2025 school year. Schools participating in the validation trial provided their NTS Assessments Mathematics test results for Year 2 and Year 6 pupils, as well as their pupils’ KS1 and KS2 SAT maths results.
Over 1000 pupils’ results were analysed for Year 6 and KS2, with the sample size dropping to 79-94 for Year 2 and KS1, since KS1 assessments are optional for schools and many did not sit that SAT test.
Key Findings
Year 6 NTS Assessments: Mathematics has a very strong positive correlation (greater than 0.8) with KS2 Maths SATs outcomes.
This indicates excellent external criterion validity for NTS Mathematics as an indicator for KS2 Maths attainment outcomes. For KS1, the correlation ranged between 0.67 and 0.73, which is a strong positive correlation.
| NTS Mathematics | SAT | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 2 Autumn | KS1 | 0.67 | Strong Positive |
| Year 2 Spring | KS1 | 0.73 | Strong Positive |
| Year 2 Summer | KS1 | 0.68 | Strong Positive |
| Year 6 Autumn | KS2 | 0.84 | Very Strong Positive |
| Year 6 Spring | KS2 | 0.86 | Very Strong Positive |
| Year 6 Summer | KS2 | 0.87 | Very Strong Positive |
Correlation coefficients between NTS Assessments: Mathematics and SATs tests
With these results, we conducted a regression analysis, predicting SAT scores based on NTS Mathematics outcomes. Confidence interval bands provide a range of expected average SAT scores, while prediction interval bands provide a range of predicted values for individual learners' SAT scores based on NTS Mathematics raw scores.
Read the full report to view all KS1 & KS2 regression lines:
SATs Correlation and Regression Analysis
Comparing learners' NTS Mathematics results (tested during the 2024-25 school year) with their 2025 KS1 & KS2 SAT Maths results.
Analysis conducted by Nikolay Panayotov, Research Data Scientist at Hachette Learning.
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